Charles Carman, “The Cassandra of ‘The Machine’,” The New Atlantis, Number 83, Winter 2026, pp. 75–81.
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As Manoukian describes it, JPM’s estimation is that a deal will be reached with Iran in two to three weeks, motivated in part by the fact that the president won’t want to see oil prices rising much higher in a midterm election year. Additionally, Iran and the Gulf states have finite munitions. “There’s a timeline here where this probably can’t continue forever, and the duration is likely to be limited,” Manoukian added. “But we just don’t know that and it’s hard to be certain.”